The following stats reflect the population decline in the Crowsnest Pass and surrounding area from 1981 to present.
----------------1981---1986---1991---1996---2001---2006---2006 vs 81
Crowsnest Pass--7340---7577---6680---6356---6262---5749-----78%
Elkford BC-------3126---3187---2846---2729---2589---2463-----79%
Sparwood BC----4157---4540---4211---3982---3812---3618-----87%
Fernie BC-------5444---5188---5012---4877---4611---4217------77%
Pincher Creek---3825---3800--3660---3659---3666---3625-----95%
Total----------23892--24292--22409--21603--20940--19672----82%
Why the analysis? well first of all I know we have a problem with population decline in the Crowsnest Pass, and we all know that there are obvious reasons for that.
I also have a theory that the population decline is directed related to the work practices of our largest employer (BC coal mines). I have long taken the position that the implementation of the four on four off schedule at the mines had a huge impact on our community. These numbers I believe support that, if you look above the four on four off schedule was implemented in 1983-84 the numbers peak in 1986. The work schedule was relatively new at that point and only a few people were living outside the area, as time marched on more and more mine employees realized the mobility that schedule provides them.
Prior to that time nobody had more than two days a week off, much more difficult to live outside the area.
If you examine the numbers CNP, Elkford and Fernie suffered relatively the same decline in population, 21 to 23%. Where Sparwood dropped 13% still significant but not as bad as the others, I would argue that Sparwood did not suffer to the same degree due to it being blessed with logistics, being right in the middle of all the mines.
Then to further prove my theory I provided the numbers for the Town of Pincher Creek close to our area but not very dependent on the mines for employment, its population only dropped 5% over that same time frame, which I'm sure you would find is consistent with rural Alberta outside of the energy sector.
You may ask why is this information relevant?
Well barring the mines going back to eight shifts, (which will never happen the employees like the four days off and it is more efficient for the employer)
Our resident population is going to keep declining in the overall area, even with the mines hiring people are finding that they can live in Lethbridge and work here.
The competition between local communties to attract people moving here is going to become more and more fierce. People that do choice to live here are going to look at the individual communities, and determine which best suits their needs we will never be able to compete with the towns in the Elk Valley as far as proximity but we have to compete with them in other ways. Appearance is a prime example.
5 comments:
How many from the Pass work in mining or support industries? And how many are engineers, managers, office workers, etc?
Here is 2006 census info for CNP vs. Pincher. Note the age distributions, incomes of male/female single parent families and women aged 35-64 with university degrees (7% vs. 21%).
Perhaps the indoor pool in Sparwood also had an influence on the family's decision.
There is a posting on the board outside the Blairmore post office discussing building an indoor pool. I believe it's part of project at one of the schools, called Voices of the Pass. There's an article in that paper you don't like (June 8 2010) about it. The posting is typed, but at the bottom, someone wrote "We can't afford one" (or something like that).
I think we can't afford not to build one. We need a rec centre. It would be a great draw, not just for families, but people retiring here. You get some money from the large employers, muni/prov/feds and Bob's your uncle. Yes, it's a simplistic, naive thought. The feds help build a rec centre in PEI not long ago, so why not here? Think of the savings for the provincial government in future health care...all those people/kids exercising! LOL Let's have some vision. Give it a try. I think the kids have a great idea, let's get the ball rolling.
If Sparwood already has an indoor pool, will the population in the area high enough to support 2 indoor pools within 1/2 hour drive of each other?
Do the taxpayers in Sparwood have to subsidize the operating cost of their indoor pool? How much do they have to subsidize?
I think if you posted information more recent than 2006 it would show a much more truer picture. If you were honest about it compare the moans streets and the businesses that have located to these other communities. They also have to deal with the same shift patterns. Not sure who you are trying to convince with this tidbit. For the record I think the community standards bylaw is a good thing and Will help. However the municipality is in the top ten as far as being one of the worst offenders.
Perhaps also with regard to the 2006 statistic it would be interesting to note the businesses that have located to these communities, as well as those who have left the communities in your comparison. That might also reveal something in the 2006 to 2010 comparison. One other interesting Stat you might like to share is the proportion of residential to commercial tax base comparison across these communities. Let's be objective here.
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